Max Pain
Strike where option sellers' aggregate loss is minimized at expiry.$18
S = spot · M = max pain · gap is educational distance, not a target
GOLD's Max Pain for the 2027-01-15 expiry is $18.0, 52.1% below the current price. As expiration nears (D-178), dealer hedging flows may exert pressure toward this level. Confidence is lower (farther expiry or wider distance) — reference only.
What this doesn't tell you
Does not incorporate news or earnings surprises. Reliability falls with low open interest or distant expiries.