Max Pain
Strike where option sellers' aggregate loss is minimized at expiry.$45
S = spot · M = max pain · gap is educational distance, not a target
EXC's Max Pain for the 2026-09-18 expiry is $45.0, 2.1% below the current price. As expiration nears (D-59), dealer hedging flows may exert pressure toward this level. Confidence is lower (farther expiry or wider distance) — reference only.
What this doesn't tell you
Does not incorporate news or earnings surprises. Reliability falls with low open interest or distant expiries.