Max Pain
Strike where option sellers' aggregate loss is minimized at expiry.$44
S = spot · M = max pain · gap is educational distance, not a target
ENPH's Max Pain for the 2026-07-24 expiry is $44.0, 11.5% above the current price. As expiration nears (D-3), dealer hedging flows may exert pressure toward this level. Confidence is higher near expiration.
What this doesn't tell you
Does not incorporate news or earnings surprises. Reliability falls with low open interest or distant expiries.